Black Friday is about eight weeks away and the big question is– how much will American shoppers spend? A report on National Public Radio says that Americans started worrying more about their job security in September which is worrying some analysts about how the holiday shopping season will go. Consumer confidence fell in September to 53.1, according to the Conference Board. It had been up to 54.5 in August and was expected to continue going up. Just to give you some perspective, the index dropped down to 25.3, a historic low, back in February. Typically, a reading above 90 indicates a solid economy.
So why does it matter how much we spend on holiday shopping? Because consumer spending on goods and services, housing and health care accounts for 70% of US economic activity. And there is no bigger spending period than during the holiday season. The Conference Board also uses a measure called the Present Situation Index. It measures what consumers think of the economy and according to the index, consumers aren’t feeling super positive. Both their current assessment and consumers’ six month outlook dropped compared to last month.
Job losses are decreasing each month, but the current unemployment rate, coupled with tight credit may be limiting factors when it comes to how much consumers spend this holiday season. Experts say shoppers may be more focused than ever before on finding discounts, using coupons and buying necessities. Some economists expect sales to be at the same levels as 2008, which were down 4.5% compared to 2007.
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